Tools
AMT Grid
Use this grid to analyze how to adapt, mitigate problems and thrive in each scenario. With your team, consider each scenario and brainstorm your strategies in each box on the grid.
OSTS Grid
Use this grid to analyze the opportunities and threats in each scenario. With your team, consider strategies for taking advantage of the opportunities and reducing or avoiding the threats. Write your strategies in the corresponding boxes on the grid.
Scenarios Matrix
Write the critical uncertainties on each axis and use 4 descriptors for the ends. Try to avoid “good vs bad” — aim for extremely DIFFERENT.
Then, describe each scenario quadrant by analyzing how the extremes combine to create a general scenario frame.
Videos
Theory & Use of Scenario Planning
Scenarios for Small Businesses
Scenario Planning Challenges
Scenarios and the 1611 Map of California
Podcast
Using Scenarios
Thomas is the Founder and Principal of Chermack Scenarios, which offers customized scenario planning and consulting. He develops systems to provoke new insights and connect decision-maker mental models to complex and uncertain environments.
Interviewed by: Peter Hayward